The Future of the College Football Playoff
Why the old CFP was doomed to fail, and what lies ahead
The College Football Playoff was created in 2014, and its creation added a new level of intrigue and excitement to college football. The College Football Playoff lasted for 10 years, and gave fans some of the most electric players, moments, and games. However, the 4-team playoff model quickly became outdated, and filled with controversy.
The largest issue was that the playoff could only take 4 teams, despite the fact that there were always 5 teams who had won a “Power 5” conference championship. This quickly led to problems, as the CFP committee often had to choose between 2 equal teams, and simply made the choice based on who they thought was better, and not who earned the spot.
The largest controversy took place this past season, when an undefeated Florida State team was not allowed into the playoffs because their star player, Jordan Travis, was injured. There was clearly a need for a change.
The College Football Playoff (CFP) is set to undergo a significant transformation for the 2024-25 season, as it expands from the existing four-team playoff format to a 12-team playoff bracket.
Under this new format, automatic bids will be granted to the five highest-ranked conference champions. This was put into place largely to avoid the type of conflict that had occurred in recent years. The remaining seven slots will be filled by the highest-ranked teams that did not earn the automatic bids. The top four teams in the rankings will receive a coveted first-round bye, advancing directly to the quarterfinals. Teams like Notre Dame have expressed their dislike for the proposed format. Since Notre Dame is not part of a conference, it is impossible for them to ever receive a first-round bye, no matter how well they play during the regular season.
However, this format is still being discussed, and there is some talk about another format being presented. Recently, rumors about a 14-team playoff have surfaced as well, but this is not confirmed yet.
The seeding for the first round will be determined with the higher-ranked teams hosting the games. The matchups for the first round are as follows: No. 5 vs. No. 12, No. 6 vs. No. 11, No. 7 vs. No. 10, and No. 8 vs. No. 9. This expanded playoff structure aims to provide more teams with the opportunity to compete for the national championship, adding an extra layer of excitement and inclusivity to the college football postseason.
To add further intrigue, New Year's Six bowl games will host the quarterfinals, adding a prestigious stage to these crucial matchups. The semifinals, however, will be held in bowls on a rotating basis. The location for the National Championship will be determined through a bidding process, allowing prospective host sites to vie for the honor of hosting the pinnacle game.
Based on last year's rankings, the playoff would’ve looked something like this: No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Florida State, No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia, No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State, and No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon. Winners from these matchups would move on to face the top four seeds without reseeding.
The quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in New Year's Six bowls on a rotating basis. For the 2024-25 season, the quarter finals will take place in the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl, while the semifinals will be in the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl. The subsequent season's lineup includes the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl for the quarterfinals, with the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl hosting the semifinals (via the NCAA website).
Some fans may be upset by this change, and for good reason. The longstanding traditions of bowl games have been completely thrown out the window. For example, if a team makes the semifinals, they could play in the Rose Bowl and the Cotton Bowl in back to back weeks. Consequently, these once prestigious bowl games will gradually lose significance. The grand spectacle of the Rose Bowl will be no more.
Additionally, many regular season games will drastically decrease in importance. In previous years, any team who wanted to compete for the CFP needed to either go undefeated, or win at least 11 games and their conference championship. This is not the case anymore. Now that 12 teams are invited to the playoff, a 2-loss team that doesn’t win their conference championship can still make the playoff. For example, Penn State in the past few years has not beaten Ohio State or Michigan, and yet under the new format, they would make the playoffs anyway. This results in rivalry games having a decreased relevance. The Michigan/Ohio State rivalry is another example of a tradition that will lose meaning. In the past years, it was widely known that the winner of “The Game” would make the playoffs, and the loser likely wouldn’t. Again, this is not the case anymore, because both teams can easily make the playoffs now that 12 teams are invited. Additionally, we could easily see a Michigan/Ohio State rematch in the playoffs now, which would make the regular-season matchup pretty meaningless. Furthermore, with the introduction of Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA to the Big 10, and the introduction of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, we will likely see a playoff dominated by the SEC and Big 10, leaving Big 12 and ACC teams in the dust.
The college football landscape has changed drastically over the past few years, with the addition of NIL, the removal of the Pac-12, and now the 12-team playoff. This upcoming season will be brand new, so fasten your seatbelts!