<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[The Inflection Point of College Football]]></title><description><![CDATA[Covering college football, and the journey through the next few years in a changing college football landscape. ]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IqJn!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff599004d-8a08-4be0-acc0-5e386a3f5e5d_708x708.png</url><title>The Inflection Point of College Football</title><link>https://www.samcain.net</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Mon, 04 May 2026 12:34:30 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.samcain.net/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Sam Cain]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[samcain@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[samcain@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[samcain@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[samcain@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[An Ode to Ann Arbor]]></title><description><![CDATA[This poem was published in the Ann Arbor Observer when I was a little kid.]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/an-ode-to-ann-arbor</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/an-ode-to-ann-arbor</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 26 Nov 2025 15:32:18 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png" width="1148" height="760" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:760,&quot;width&quot;:1148,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:1647692,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/i/180030723?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nlqp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe80f8c93-c5a7-43cd-8bd9-efa0728a750b_1148x760.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>This poem was published in the</strong><em><strong> Ann Arbor Observer </strong></em><strong>when I was a little kid. I wanted to share this now that I&#8217;m back in Ann Arbor once more:  </strong></p><p>My favorite place, Ann Arbor, my grandparent&#8217;s house. I go once or twice a year, my whole life.</p><p>I imagine the smell of the turkey on Thanksgiving day, prepared by grandma. I imagine the smell of grandpa&#8217;s old books, all over the house.</p><p>Their house reminds me of happy; a peaceful meadow, a break from life.</p><p>In Michigan, it gets really cold in the winter. The cold bites at you like a wild wolf. But it&#8217;s all worthwhile if the snow comes. The snow is magic; a Christmas song.</p><p>Michigan football games. One of 110,000 fans. You&#8217;re on a huge roller coaster.</p><p>No idea if your team will win or lose, but the memory of Michigan is what counts.</p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[A Look at the Future of Michigan Football]]></title><description><![CDATA[A review of the Northwestern game and look at the next two matchups of the season]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/a-look-at-the-future-of-michigan</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/a-look-at-the-future-of-michigan</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 16 Nov 2025 21:03:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png" width="1456" height="865" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uyQb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd7e6cc39-368e-43ca-84b5-552a06914fdb_1832x1088.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Following Michigan&#8217;s narrow victory against Northwestern, there are only 2 more regular season games left on the season. This Michigan team is one of the youngest we&#8217;ve seen in recent history. While the victory against Northwestern was messy at best, there are reasons for celebration. Most notably, the game showed us what we already knew: Michigan football has a bright future. The team is headed by the 18-year old phenom Bryce Underwood (who&#8217;s just a few months older than I), as well as emerging star WR Andrew Marsh. The star RB, Jordan Marshall, is only a sophomore. The offensive line is filled with underclassmen like Blake Frazier, Andrew Sprague, and Jake Guarnera. On defense, young players like Mason Curtis, Jordan Young, and Cole Sullivan have played key roles as well. </p><p>The first half against Northwestern was quite possibly the best passing offense we&#8217;ve seen all year. Bryce Underwood started the game with 9 straight completions, and further cemented his connection with fellow freshmen Marsh. By the end of the game, they&#8217;d connected on 12 catches for 189 yards. They both took a huge leap forward in the first half. Despite Underwood&#8217;s mistakes, there is clear talent to be excited about. </p><p>However, heading into the Maryland game, Michigan has a lot to fix. The biggest problem was the turnovers. The Wolverines turned the ball over a whopping 5 times against the Wildcats, and somehow still managed to win the game. A lot of this must be fixed on Special Teams. A muffed punt from Semaj Morgan gave Northwestern key field position, and 2 missed field goals kept them within reach. Errors like this cannot continue against Maryland, and especially not against Ohio State. </p><p>The best thing Michigan can do to prepare for Ohio State is simply to get healthy. Jordan Marshall went down with a shoulder injury late in the game, which comes just a few weeks after Justice Haynes&#8217; season ending foot injury. The one-two punch of Haynes and Marshall is eerily reminiscent of the Corum-Edwards duo of the past. Luckily for Wolverine fans, Marshall&#8217;s x-ray came back negative. However, we have yet to get a real status update on his health. </p><p>The last few weeks of the season will be telling. If there is any hope of beating the Buckeyes this year, Bryce Underwood must be the reason. He has shown flashes of elite talent, but has been inconsistent. This inconsistency cannot continue.</p><p>This season has been exciting for Wolverine fans. One of the youngest teams in the country is consistently fighting and competing amongst top teams in the nation. However, Ohio State will easily be their greatest test of the year. The team&#8217;s legacy will undoubtedly be decided by that game.  </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of College Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Question of NIL in College Sports]]></title><description><![CDATA[The pros and cons of the monetization of collegiate athletics]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/the-question-of-nil-in-college-sports</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/the-question-of-nil-in-college-sports</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 11 Nov 2025 23:42:37 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png" width="1200" height="788" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DhIw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcdc4212b-bac2-4ecd-99f9-d42d14564167_1200x788.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Recently, the Supreme Court allowed college athletes to profit off of their name, image, and likeness. This is commonly referred to as NIL, and often manifests in commercial advertisement deals between athletes and private corporations. This law was passed because there was a big problem in college sports. Universities, TV companies, and sponsors were making billions of dollars in college athletics. However, the product that generated all this revenue was the athletes themselves. They were not allowed to be paid before this law was passed. It started out as a great idea, and has actually resulted in excellent outcomes. However, NIL has also been used in more unsavory ways. </p><p>The introduction of NIL has created an uneven playing field, as athletes from larger schools or with more marketable personas could garner disproportionate opportunities and financial rewards, leading to recruiting imbalances and potentially damaging the competitiveness of smaller programs. For example, schools like Alabama or Notre Dame who have very large budgets can spend a lot on recruiting. A smaller school like Tulane or Wake Forest will not have the means to spend as much, and thus will fall behind. The focus of recruiting has and will continue to shift away from the character of the program itself and towards the size of the check it can offer. </p><p>This will also affect high school athletes. These players can be recruited as early as 16 years old. Now that large amounts of money are in play, the college decision becomes even more important. High school age kids are now making decisions that could result in million dollar differences. </p><p>Additionally, collegiate programs are increasingly utilizing the transfer portal to target fully grown players, sometimes graduates, instead of recruiting high school seniors. For these seniors, the &#8220;normal&#8221; college pathway may look very different than it has in the past. It may become standard issue to attend several schools rather than an abnormality. Student-athletes who hope to leverage their talents to attain a top-tier education as their primary goal will undoubtedly be hurt.</p><p>Moreover, the focus on individual branding could overshadow the essence of collegiate sports as team-oriented. This could affect the unity and camaraderie within teams. There&#8217;s also a risk that increased commercialization could blur the lines between amateur and professional athletics, altering the unique character that college sports have maintained. With the introduction of large scale NIL deals, the top tier of athletes drift further away from being real college students. For example, the Big10 is currently in talks to sell their media rights to a large Private Equity firm. College football is different from the NFL because it&#8217;s &#8220;college&#8221; football. </p><p>NIL deals could also introduce problems with the academic priorities of student-athletes. If, for example, a big-name player like Arch Manning is making millions in college, he really has no incentive to focus on school at all. This may have been true in the past, but the problem has only been augmented. In this scenario, the gray area widens between collegiate and professional athletics. </p><p>On the other hand, there is serious, tangible benefit to NIL in college sports. Many athletes who never had the chance to compete on the professional level will be able to make real money during their college years. Additionally, the threat of a career ending injury is somewhat less pertinent if a given player has already been compensated for his lifelong dedication to his sport. </p><p>Athletic programs should seize this opportunity. On top of helping their athletes make well earned money, they should also invest in financial literacy programs to help their teenagers and young adults manage their newly-made fortunes. </p><p>Whether you like it or not, the legalization of NIL will change college sports in drastic ways. While it&#8217;s important that college athletes are adequately compensated for the value they provide, we must also make sure that the business doesn&#8217;t get out of hand. </p><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of College Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[An Introduction to the 2024-2025 College Football Season]]></title><description><![CDATA[A look at all of the top teams in the first week of play]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/an-introduction-to-the-2024-2025</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/an-introduction-to-the-2024-2025</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 05 Sep 2024 03:41:52 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e3afe319-edbb-4901-80a4-d7c5ea51fea0_1334x884.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ve finally made it to the 2024 college football season - a year that will be different from all that came before: Oklahoma and Texas in the SEC; Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA in the Big 10; a 12-team playoff. This year will be brand new.&nbsp;</p><p>So what&#8217;s been going on in the offseason?&nbsp;</p><p>Primarily, NIL has gone out of control. I wrote an article last summer about how NIL could spiral into something dangerous, and it definitely has. The sport is moving in the direction of being effectively semi-pro. We&#8217;re seeing teams like Ohio State and Georgia offer massive checks in order to recruit players, all the while siphoning off the top talent of much smaller schools who simply don&#8217;t have the budget to compete. In just the last few years, the sport has changed drastically - we&#8217;ll start to see this year if it&#8217;s for better and for worse, but right now it feels as dangerous as I feared.&nbsp;</p><p>But now, let's get to football.&nbsp;</p><p>The biggest game of the week was probably top-ranked Georgia against #14 Clemson. The game started off very slow. Both teams looked rusty, but Georgia was quite disappointing at first, considering the talent they&#8217;ve had in the past few seasons. However, the game quickly got out of hand. Now veteran QB Carson Beck proved to be both an effective game manager and sneakily athletic centerpiece of the potent Georgia offense. They ended up scoring 34 on Clemson, all without their transfer RB Trevor Etienne. Georgia looks potent and appears to deserve its #1 pre-season ranking&nbsp;</p><p>Overall, all of the top teams dominated. Ohio State managed to drop 52 points on Akron, with a great performance from true freshman WR Jeremiah Smith, who hauled in 2 touchdowns. Their new QB Will Howard had a rough start, beginning 6-16, but finished the game very strong. The Buckeyes have a loaded roster this year, which might have to do with all of that NIL money coming through Columbus. Alabama had a similar day. They won their first game with no sweat, and luckily got to see their true freshman WR, (who&#8217;s still 17 years old), have a huge day. Both teams should be very optimistic.&nbsp;</p><p>Now, let&#8217;s look at two teams who struggled a bit more - the first being Oregon. There was huge hype surrounding the Ducks this offseason. They were able to return many of their key pieces from last year&#8217;s team, while also managing to bring in two superstar players in QB Dillon Gabriel and WR Evan Stewart. However, all of this talent didn&#8217;t exactly translate into huge success. They only defeated Idaho, a far inferior team, by 10 points. They finished the game with a 24-14 win, but their performance left everyone a bit underwhelmed.&nbsp;</p><p>Finally, we have Michigan. The 30-10 scoreline doesn&#8217;t immediately jump out as concerning, but it doesn't tell the full story. The Wolverines are coming off a magical national championship run, having won 15 straight games. However, they lost nearly all of their key offensive players, like JJ McCarthy, Blake Corum, Roman Wilson, and nearly all of their offensive lineman. You wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to find out that the offense struggled. Coming into the season, there was a QB battle between the game-manager Davis Warren and the dual-threat Alex Orji. Orji has made appearances in previous seasons - many expected him to be the starter. The Wolverines staff was very secretive; we didn&#8217;t find out until kickoff that Warren was actually starting. Both players got meaningful snaps, but neither looked great. Warren, while not making many game changing mistakes, does not seem to be a downfield threat. On the other hand, while Orji is dangerous in the running game, the coaching staff seems very hesitant to let him throw the ball. The two throws he was given were both checkdowns or dump offs and did not require an actual read. The defense, though, is another story. They were able to retain much more of the &#8216;23 roster, with key players like Mason Graham and Will Johnson making immediate impacts. The defense stifled most of the Fresno State offense, and generated two turnovers as well. I&#8217;m concerned about Michigan&#8217;s chances next week against the Texas Longhorns, given that the offense seems to be entirely reliant on slants to Colston Loveland and the occasional push from Mullings or Edwards. While this sufficed against a weak Fresno State team, it will not work against a far more talented Texas team, who will now be able to spot Michigan&#8217;s downfield passing attack weaknesses, and plan accordingly.&nbsp;</p><p>Finally, we have Sunday night&#8217;s game: USC vs LSU. Two historically offensive-minded teams, both having featured Heisman Trophy QBs in the past two years, came in with two brand new starters. However, right away, both Nussmeier and Moss looked like seasoned veterans. Both teams moved the ball down the field with ease. LSU relied on Senior Kyren Lacy in the beginning, but Nussmeier was able to target nearly all of his receivers. Similarly, Miller Moss found a special connection with Kyron Hudson and Zach Branch. USC managed to get the victory due to the great leadership of Miller Moss. He executed the two-minute drill to perfection, showing no signs of fear or nerves. All in all, both teams look much more balanced this year. In years past, a critique of both the Tigers and Trojans was that despite their great offenses, their respective defenses were quite weak. After only one game, this no longer seems to be the case. Both fan bases should look forward to a great season ahead.</p><p>Photo creds: Robert Gauthier (LA Times)</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of College Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Future of the College Football Playoff]]></title><description><![CDATA[Why the old CFP was doomed to fail, and what lies ahead]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/the-future-of-the-college-football</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/the-future-of-the-college-football</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 24 Mar 2024 18:26:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/494d0b07-aebb-42a8-8c26-7f0b9d547a4c_1264x836.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The College Football Playoff was created in 2014, and its creation added a new level of intrigue and excitement to college football. The College Football Playoff lasted for 10 years, and gave fans some of the most electric players, moments, and games. However, the 4-team playoff model quickly became outdated, and filled with controversy.</p><p>The largest issue was that the playoff could only take 4 teams, despite the fact that there were always 5 teams who had won a &#8220;Power 5&#8221; conference championship. This quickly led to problems, as the CFP committee often had to choose between 2 equal teams, and simply made the choice based on who they thought was better, and not who earned the spot.&nbsp;</p><p>The largest controversy took place this past season, when an undefeated Florida State team was not allowed into the playoffs because their star player, Jordan Travis, was injured. There was clearly a need for a change.&nbsp;</p><p>The College Football Playoff (CFP) is set to undergo a significant transformation for the 2024-25 season, as it expands from the existing four-team playoff format to a 12-team playoff bracket.&nbsp;</p><p>Under this new format, automatic bids will be granted to the five highest-ranked conference champions. This was put into place largely to avoid the type of conflict that had occurred in recent years. The remaining seven slots will be filled by the highest-ranked teams that did not earn the automatic bids. The top four teams in the rankings will receive a coveted first-round bye, advancing directly to the quarterfinals. Teams like Notre Dame have expressed their dislike for the proposed format. Since Notre Dame is not part of a conference, it is impossible for them to ever receive a first-round bye, no matter how well they play during the regular season.&nbsp;</p><p>However, this format is still being discussed, and there is some talk about another format being presented. Recently, rumors about a 14-team playoff have surfaced as well, but this is not confirmed yet.&nbsp;</p><p>The seeding for the first round will be determined with the higher-ranked teams hosting the games. The matchups for the first round are as follows: No. 5 vs. No. 12, No. 6 vs. No. 11, No. 7 vs. No. 10, and No. 8 vs. No. 9. This expanded playoff structure aims to provide more teams with the opportunity to compete for the national championship, adding an extra layer of excitement and inclusivity to the college football postseason.</p><p>To add further intrigue, New Year's Six bowl games will host the quarterfinals, adding a prestigious stage to these crucial matchups. The semifinals, however, will be held in bowls on a rotating basis. The location for the National Championship will be determined through a bidding process, allowing prospective host sites to vie for the honor of hosting the pinnacle game.</p><p>Based on last year's rankings, the playoff would&#8217;ve looked something like this: No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Florida State, No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia, No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State, and No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon. Winners from these matchups would move on to face the top four seeds without reseeding.</p><p>The quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in New Year's Six bowls on a rotating basis. For the 2024-25 season, the quarter finals will take place in the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl, while the semifinals will be in the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl. The subsequent season's lineup includes the Cotton Bowl, Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl for the quarterfinals, with the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl hosting the semifinals (via the NCAA website).</p><p>Some fans may be upset by this change, and for good reason. The longstanding traditions of bowl games have been completely thrown out the window. For example, if a team makes the semifinals, they could play in the Rose Bowl and the Cotton Bowl in back to back weeks. Consequently, these once prestigious bowl games will gradually lose significance. The grand spectacle of the Rose Bowl will be no more.&nbsp;</p><p>Additionally, many regular season games will drastically decrease in importance. In previous years, any team who wanted to compete for the CFP needed to either go undefeated, or win at least 11 games and their conference championship. This is not the case anymore. Now that 12 teams are invited to the playoff, a 2-loss team that doesn&#8217;t win their conference championship can still make the playoff. For example, Penn State in the past few years has not beaten Ohio State or Michigan, and yet under the new format, they would make the playoffs anyway. This results in rivalry games having a decreased relevance. The Michigan/Ohio State rivalry is another example of a tradition that will lose meaning. In the past years, it was widely known that the winner of &#8220;The Game&#8221; would make the playoffs, and the loser likely wouldn&#8217;t. Again, this is not the case anymore, because both teams can easily make the playoffs now that 12 teams are invited. Additionally, we could easily see a Michigan/Ohio State rematch in the playoffs now, which would make the regular-season matchup pretty meaningless. Furthermore, with the introduction of Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA to the Big 10, and the introduction of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, we will likely see a playoff dominated by the SEC and Big 10, leaving Big 12 and ACC teams in the dust.&nbsp;</p><p>The college football landscape has changed drastically over the past few years, with the addition of NIL, the removal of the Pac-12, and now the 12-team playoff. This upcoming season will be brand new, so fasten your seatbelts!</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of College Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Michigan's Perfect Season]]></title><description><![CDATA[What is next for the Wolverines?]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/michigans-perfect-season</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/michigans-perfect-season</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 16 Jan 2024 01:18:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ac959a89-5a7f-4f2c-b9f4-9bc1b1b80ff3_902x622.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michigan&#8217;s 2023-2024 season was nothing short of perfect. They defeated their biggest rivals, won the Big 10 title, and triumphed over Alabama in the playoffs. They went into the national championship as 14-0, and continued their domination right away. </p><p>This game had huge importance for the Wolverines. Many of their key players were seniors, meaning that this game would be their last chance at greatness. </p><p>Right away, it was clear that Michigan came to play. Their first drive was extraordinary. They easily tore through the Washington defense, and established the run early. Then, backup running back Donovan Edwards evaded a tackle, and accelerated past the defense, giving the Wolverines an early score. Edwards had struggled this season, despite his high expectations coming into 2023. His touchdown was therefore very nice to see.</p><p>Washington responded well, and had a nice drive into the red-zone. However, Michigan&#8217;s defense continued to be dominant, and stifled the Huskies, forcing them to settle for a field goal. </p><p>Then, with the ball back, Michigan wanted to put Washington on their heels. Donovan Edwards was not done yet, as he broke away again, for a 46 yard score. </p><p>Michigan&#8217;s defense kept up their stellar play, and this time Washington couldn&#8217;t score at all. Then, superstar RB Blake Corum broke off a huge 59 yard run. In just the first quarter, the Michigan running backs accounted for 3 of the 4 longest runs in CFP history. At this point, it looked as though the Wolverines would run away with the game. However, they were unable to fully capitalize, and had to settle for a field goal. </p><p>For the rest of the first half, Michigan&#8217;s offense struggled. Repeated punts gave momentum to the Husky offense, and they were able to score a touchdown before the half. Washington would also be getting the ball after the half, and at this point, it looked as though the Wolverines might be about to lose their lead. </p><p>However, on the first play of the second half, the Wolverines got pressure, tipped Penix&#8217;s pass, and the star sophomore Will Johnson came down with the INT. This was huge for Michigan, as their drive started in Washington territory. </p><p>But yet again, the offense couldn&#8217;t capitalize on the opportunity, and had to settle for a field goal. Washington responded with a field goal. Then, the next 6 possessions of the game resulted in 6 punts. </p><p>Michigan&#8217;s offense finally turned on again after a huge play, when McCarthy connected with Colston Loveland for a 41 yard gain. In signature fashion, Blake Corum finished the drive with a huge touchdown run, in which he evaded numerous tackles from the defense. Time and time again, Corum seemed to find that endzone at the perfect time, when Michigan most needed a score. </p><p>Washington was down two scores, and they were in desperation mode, as time was ticking. They managed to make their way into Wolverine territory. Then, Penix overthrew a pass, and captain Mike Sainristil picked it off, effectively winning the game for the Wolverines. He took the ball 80 yards down the field, resulting in an instant red-zone possession for Michigan, and Blake Corum pounded the ball in, for his final touchdown in a Michigan uniform. </p><p>In 144 years of Michigan football, this team was likely the best of them. Having overcome so much adversity, so many scandals, the Wolverines didn&#8217;t let it get to their heads. They stayed focused on their goal, and didn&#8217;t let anything stop them.</p><p>At the end of the 2022 season, Blake Corum was draft eligible, and was coming off a record-breaking season. He easily could&#8217;ve left Michigan and gone onto a successful NFL career, but he didn&#8217;t. He felt there was unfinished business. He came back to win a national championship. And then, a year later, holding up the trophy, he declared that &#8220;Business is Finished.&#8221; </p><p>The narrative of Blake Corum, along with other dedicated Michigan seniors who chose to remain with the team, is encapsulated by the iconic mantra in Michigan football: "Those who stay will be champions.&#8221; </p><p>The turnaround of the Michigan football program is something remarkable. In 2020, they went 2-4, and Jim Harbaugh was on the verge of being fired. The next season, against all odds, they beat Ohio State and made it to the CFP for the first time. In 2022, they had higher expectations. Again beating Ohio State, they went undefeated, and made their return to the playoff. In a shocking defeat against TCU, the players vowed that they would be back. And here they were, a year later, hoisting the National Championship trophy. </p><p>So what&#8217;s next for the program? There are still many questions:</p><p>Who will be the Head Coach in 2024? It&#8217;s no secret that Jim Harbaugh has interest in leaving for the NFL. He just recently met with the LA Chargers. So what would it mean for the program if he left? Unfortunately, if Harbaugh were to leave, we could expect several recruits to de-commit from the program, a trend that we&#8217;ve seen with the departures of Lincoln Riley, Urban Meyer, and recently, Nick Saban. </p><p>However, if Harbaugh did leave, the Wolverines are lucky to have an excellent replacement: Offensive Coordinator, Sherrone Moore, was the interim Head Coach of the Wolverines for 6 games this season, in the wake of Harbaugh&#8217;s suspensions. In these 6 games, he went 6-0, defeating arch-rivals Ohio State, and a victory against Penn State in Happy Valley. </p><p>What will the team look like next year? Well, the simple answer is that it&#8217;ll be very different. Michigan&#8217;s two best players, JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum, are both leaving to pursue NFL careers. Additionally, Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson are graduating, along with almost the entire offensive line. And that&#8217;s just the offense.</p><p>Defensively, Michigan will lose both starting linebackers, Michael Barrett and Junior Colson. They will also lose key edge rusher Braeden McGregor, and the supremely athletic DT Kris Jenkins. Their biggest defensive loss will be Mike Sainristil, who was captain and leader of the defense for the past years. </p><p>So what will the roster look like in 2024? Obviously, the most important question is who will be the Quarterback? With McCarthy gone, there is no clear answer, but many are guessing that Alex Orji will end up taking the job. Orji is a tall and athletic player, whose running ability is similar to Jalen Milroe. Throughout the season, Michigan used him occasionally, and he broke off a big run in a key moment against Ohio State. However, he is extremely untested, and no one has seen him throw the ball yet. </p><p>Blake Corum will be a huge loss, but luckily, the talented Donovan Edwards is staying with the Wolverines for his final season. His speed and experience will be huge for a really young team next year. The offensive line will look totally different as well, and we must expect a decline in that area. Colston Loveland will become the most experienced pass-catcher on the offense. I expect him to have a really big role next season. At WR, the Wolverines are very very thin now. Semaj Morgan and Tyler Morris will be the key WRs. They both showed potential last season, but haven&#8217;t had a ton of reps. Defensively, Michigan will recover, because they were so deep at almost every position. </p><p>The 2024 season will be a different college football from what we&#8217;ve ever seen. The introduction of Washington, Oregon, USC, and UCLA to the Big 10 will be totally new. Additionally, the expanded 12-team playoff takes away some importance to the regular season. For example, a 2-loss Penn State team would&#8217;ve made it this year, despite having what they&#8217;d consider an unsuccessful season. </p><p>This season was special for the Wolverines. There will probably never be another team like this. There won&#8217;t be another Ohio State/Michigan game like this. Growing up as a Michigan fan, I never got to experience a truly great Michigan team. My dad had seen great Michigan teams in his life, and had always wished that I&#8217;d be able to see one too. It&#8217;s bittersweet to end this way, having come off such a great season, but knowing it will never be the same. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Rose Bowl Review]]></title><description><![CDATA[and some National Championship insight]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/rose-bowl-review</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/rose-bowl-review</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2024 21:20:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8ce48244-0759-4c39-980a-a1f4e8784346_1042x706.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michigan vs Alabama: the stakes are nothing short of enormous, as these historically successful programs converge in the Rose Bowl Playoff Game, each vying for a coveted spot in college football history. Both teams carry the weight of storied legacies, with Michigan seeking redemption after recent near-misses in the previous seasons, while Alabama, perennial contenders, aim to add another chapter to their illustrious dynasty.&nbsp;</p><p>Michigan football achieved a historic triumph against Alabama, a significant win that marked a redemption after falling short in the College Football Playoff for the past two seasons.</p><p>Amidst various negative narratives surrounding the Wolverines, skepticism persisted that their success was just a byproduct of an easy Big Ten schedule. Doubters argued that the SEC's prowess would easily overpower a Big Ten team like Michigan. The team also carried the weight of an infamous sign-stealing scandal. This adversity fueled a determination within the team to prove their worth, with or without the controversy.</p><p>The game itself was marred by early mistakes. Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy narrowly avoided a major blunder on the first play, attempting to throw away a pass, but was picked off by an Alabama defender, Caleb Downs. Luckily, the Wolverines caught a break, as Downs had stepped out of bounds prior to his big play.&nbsp;</p><p>Although the offense initially struggled, yielding possession to Alabama, Michigan's defense rose to the occasion. Relentless pressure on Milroe forced a quick punt, only for a mishandled return by Semaj Morgan to gift the Crimson Tide an early score.</p><p>Despite early setbacks, Michigan countered and orchestrated a flawless drive to level the score at 7. They capped it off with a beautifully run play, using tons of misdirection to confuse the defense, resulting in Blake Corum catching a pass out of the backfield. He then easily made it to the end zone for the score.&nbsp;</p><p>The Wolverines' defense continued to disrupt Milroe, securing five sacks in the first half. Jalen Milroe often dropped way too far in the pocket, and the defense took advantage. Yet, Michigan&#8217;s offensive output was limited, and they failed to capitalize on their excellent field position. However, the Wolverines finally threw another punch, with an excellent touchdown from the speedster Tyler Morris, who outran the entire Bama defense. There was a narrative that the Big 10 couldn&#8217;t handle the speed of the SEC, and this play proved it to be false. However, this big play was overshadowed by a botched extra point.</p><p>Alabama put together another drive to end the half, resulting in a field goal. The halftime score of 13-10 favored the Wolverines, but considering the defensive dominance, the margin should have been more pronounced.</p><p>With only a 3-point deficit, Alabama made crucial adjustments. Coach Nick Saban recognized the vulnerability of Milroe in the pocket and implemented a strategic shift. Utilizing a barrage of Run/Pass Option plays, the Tide kept the Michigan defense guessing and enabled Milroe to contribute to the running game, resulting in a score that handed them a 4-point lead.</p><p>Michigan's offense struggled in the third quarter, repeatedly punting as they appeared out of sync. Entering the fourth quarter, Alabama extended their lead with a field goal, creating a 7-point gap. It looked as though Nick Saban had outcoached Harbaugh.&nbsp;</p><p>It wasn&#8217;t until the very end of the game that the Wolverine offense started to play well. With 3 minutes left in the game, Michigan faced the challenge of mounting a game-tying drive, needing to defy the odds for a shot at victory.</p><p>Faced with a 4th and 2 in their own half, Jim Harbaugh decided to roll the dice and go for it. Yet again, they used misdirection to confuse the Tide, allowing Corum to catch a pass for a huge gain. JJ McCarthy then floated a ball to Roman Wilson, and even after it was tipped, he made a spectacular catch to put the Wolverines inside the 5 yard line. They then tied up the game, with Roman Wilson taking the ball in for a score.&nbsp;</p><p>The Michigan defense stifled Alabama, and forced them to punt. Learning from earlier struggles, the Wolverines entrusted Jake Thaw with the punt-catching duty due to his consistent performance throughout the season. However, under pressure, Thaw fumbled the ball, only to recover it on the half-yard line. Opting for a conservative approach, the Wolverines decided against further risks, kneeling the ball to force the game into overtime.</p><p>The biggest game of the season, on the biggest stage, was going into overtime. The stakes were at an all-time high. Michigan started with the ball, and went to Corum right away. Then, on his second attempt, he broke several tackles, and spun his way into the end-zone on a miraculous run. Over the course of the season, Blake Corum had always found a way to score when Michigan needed it most. Against both Penn State and Ohio State, we saw similar plays right in front of our eyes. With this run, Corum had broken the record of most rushing touchdowns scored in Michigan history.</p><p>Facing the need for a touchdown to stay in the game, Alabama's Milroe advanced to the 10-yard line. However, Michigan's defense surged to life, executing two stellar plays in succession and pushing the Tide to a 3rd and Goal from the 14. Milroe connected with star WR Jermaine Burton, bringing them to the 3-yard line. The pivotal moment arrived with a 4th and 3, a make-or-break situation. In a decisive play, Coach Saban entrusted his star player, Jalen Milroe, who attempted a run up the middle, and was promptly stopped by a fired up defensive line. Michigan had won.</p><p>This game signified a turning point for the Wolverines. Everyone believed that they weren&#8217;t good enough to win the big games. They weren&#8217;t good enough to beat an SEC team. But at the biggest moment, with the whole world watching, Michigan managed to advance to the Championship.&nbsp;</p><p>I write this 3 hours before the National Championship. Now, Michigan stands on the brink, facing the undefeated Washington Huskies with the title at stake. We haven&#8217;t had an outright championship in decades. Washington poses a formidable threat, led by the highly skilled Michael Penix Jr, arguably the best passer in the country, supported by two NFL-caliber receivers and the nation's top offensive line. Their offensive prowess has been unrivaled, but Michigan's defense stands as a formidable obstacle.</p><p>While Washington has dominated against most defenses this season, their toughest test came against Oregon, whose passing defense ranked around 50th. In contrast, Michigan boasts the second-ranked pass defense in the country, offering a unique challenge for the Huskies.</p><p>On the defensive front, Washington is comparatively less formidable. Michigan's path to victory hinges on executing sustained, time-consuming drives to limit Penix's time on the field. If Michigan can thwart the Huskies' quick-scoring capabilities, victory is within reach.</p><p>This moment signifies the pinnacle of the season&#8212;the Wolverines have a mere 60 minutes to affirm their status as the best team in the country. The challenge is clear, and the stage is set for an epic showdown.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Michigan vs Alabama: Pre-Game]]></title><description><![CDATA[What are the factors that will decide the Rose Bowl?]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/michigan-vs-alabama-pre-game</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/michigan-vs-alabama-pre-game</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 29 Dec 2023 16:08:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bea975ff-9444-49b8-9c5e-2c2e91e9ccc8_1042x650.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michigan&#8217;s upcoming game against Alabama will be one of the biggest games in CFP history. Two college football powerhouses will go head-to-head in the most iconic stadium in the sport. The stakes have never been higher. </p><p>So what will make or break the game for Michigan?</p><p>The linchpin of this matchup? Quarterback play, specifically the showdown between Milroe and McCarthy. In my view, the game's outcome hinges on the performance of these signal-callers.</p><p>McCarthy has maintained consistent form throughout the season, with any faltering only occurring against lesser opponents. His stellar play must persist for the Wolverines to triumph over Alabama.</p><p>Jalen Milroe's impact on Alabama's performance is undeniable. When he falters, as seen in the Texas game, Alabama struggles. Conversely, when he shines, such as against Georgia, they appear unstoppable. Despite a shaky start to the season, Milroe has soared, even entering the Heisman conversation and leading Alabama to a victory against #1 Georgia.</p><p>Because of Milroe&#8217;s stellar play, many are concerned that Michigan won&#8217;t be able to handle him. There is cause for concern, because the Michigan defense really hasn&#8217;t played a QB that can run like Milroe. At any given time, Milroe is often the most athletic player on the field, and generally the fastest one too. However, having watched several Alabama games, I think Milroe is not the best passer. He has a tendency to lob his passes high in the air, and this forces his receivers to make the play for him. It can lead to inaccurate throws, and even interceptions. Also, because of his ridiculous running ability, he sometimes tries to run all over the field to evade the defense. He often forces himself into difficult decisions when it isn&#8217;t exactly necessary. For example, during the Georgia game, there are several instances when Milroe dropped back way too far, and eventually got sacked or had to make a bad throw. Now, every so often, it pays off, and he pulls off a crazy highlight reel play. If Michigan wants to stop him, they will have to try to contain him, not stop him altogether. </p><p>Both Michigan and Alabama have great defenses. One key factor will be: which can play better. Michigan is one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers. In both of Michigan&#8217;s biggest wins, they forced big turnovers. Against Penn State and Ohio State, the Wolverine defense&#8217;s turnovers resulted in huge momentum swings. They must continue this against Bama. </p><p>As the defensive battle unfolds, the offensive lines of both teams will play a pivotal role. With Zak Zinter sidelined for the season, Michigan's line must adapt and perform admirably against Alabama's formidable defensive front, providing crucial support for running backs Corum and Edwards.</p><p>Finally, Michigan must have a great game-plan, because Saban has done this many times before. He&#8217;s been in the playoffs nearly every year, while Michigan has yet to win a playoff game. Jim Harbaugh and Sherrone Moore must call the game perfectly to match up with the experience of Alabama. </p><p>The significance of this game transcends the immediate playoff implications. It's a make-or-break moment for Michigan football at large. With Harbaugh's potential NFL aspirations and a team comprised largely of seniors, this may be their best shot at glory. The narrative that Michigan can't compete with the SEC looms large, and Monday's game presents the Wolverines with a golden opportunity to defy the doubters. The Michigan Wolverines stand on the brink of a monumental moment as they prepare to take on Alabama in the playoffs. The journey so far has been marked by determination, skill, and a relentless pursuit of victory. As the Wolverines step onto the field, they carry the hopes and dreams of their fans. The outcome of this game will not merely be a win or a loss; it will be a chapter in the storied history of Michigan football, one that will resonate for years to come.</p><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Preview of the Playoff, and Review of the Iowa Game]]></title><description><![CDATA[More on the conflict between Alabama and Florida State]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/preview-of-the-playoff-and-review</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/preview-of-the-playoff-and-review</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 03 Dec 2023 23:25:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/67c40151-949d-476f-a04e-8f0c64ecad74_1132x854.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They do it again. Michigan punches their ticket to the College Football Playoff for the 3rd consecutive season. But the question is: who will they play?</p><p>There is a huge debate about which teams belong in the playoff this year. Obviously, undefeated Michigan and Washington have spots. However, there is conflict surrounding the other 2 spots in the playoff.&nbsp;</p><p>Florida State finished the season 13-0, as ACC Champions. Generally, that should guarantee a spot. However, their star QB Jordan Travis suffered a season ending injury. In the games since then, FSU has looked really really weak.&nbsp;</p><p>Meanwhile, Texas dominated Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship, meaning they finish as 12-1 conference champions. They also beat Alabama earlier in the season, which is super important.</p><p>The biggest game was Alabama vs Georgia. Georgia had won 29 games in a row, and 2 straight national championships. They&#8217;d been the consensus number 1 ranked team for over a year. Then Alabama comes in and beats them, effectively eliminating Georgia. Now here is the dilemma:</p><p>Alabama, having beaten #1 Georgia and being SEC champions, are clearly deserving of a playoff spot. However, they did lose to Texas earlier. Therefore, since the committee wanted to put Bama in the playoffs, they must put Texas as well. They&#8217;re a package deal. If it were up to me, I would also choose Michigan, Washington, Texas, and Alabama. Those are the 4 best teams in the country.&nbsp;</p><p>However, Florida State was a wildcard. They had the resume to make the playoff, but there are only 4 spots. If the CFP committee wants to put in FSU, they would&#8217;ve had to keep out either Texas or Alabama. But they can&#8217;t choose between one of them. If they had sent Texas over Bama, the playoff would&#8217;ve featured 0 SEC teams, which is clearly not representative of the actual 4 best teams in the country. However, if they chose Bama over Texas, it would&#8217;ve sparked outrage because Texas already beat Bama. Putting FSU in the playoff would&#8217;ve forced the committee to make an impossible decision. Therefore, I think the committee was right to deem Florida State not worthy of the playoffs based on player availability. Let&#8217;s face it, we all know Florida State would lose to any of the top 8 teams right now. If we can all agree on that, then why should they be selected as a top 4 team? Florida State was only undefeated because of Jordan Travis. Without him, they are not really a 13-0 team, and therefore do not deserve a spot. They played very few games without Travis, and none of them were dominant wins. I was checking up on the score of the FSU/Louisville game, and every time I opened the ESPN app, I saw that one of the teams was punting to the other. I saw so many punts that I ended up memorizing the name of the Florida State punter. Frankly, a team that struggles this much against Louisville doesn&#8217;t deserve a spot. The CFP committee made the same choice, and I think it accurately reflects the 4 best teams in the country.</p><p>Michigan&#8217;s matchup vs Alabama will be a great one. Having the game at the Rose Bowl will be a great experience. Michigan will have to be able to contain Jalen Milroe. His scrambling ability is really dangerous. However, his passing is not as great. Against Georgia, he missed several open receivers. He also had the tendency to drop back really far when under pressure, and if he can&#8217;t break away, it results in a huge loss for the team. Michigan will need to exploit these faults if they want to win. Alabama&#8217;s defense is a bigger concern, as they are really physical and talented. Closer to the game, I will post a more detailed preview.&nbsp;</p><p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</p><p>So what did we learn from the Iowa game?&nbsp;</p><p>I think clearly, the team is missing Zak Zinter. All credit to Iowa&#8217;s defense, they played a fantastic game. However, too many times, we saw McCarthy getting pressured and taking sacks. The Iowa defense was able to keep the Wolverine WRs at bay, and McCarthy couldn&#8217;t decide what to do with the ball before the Iowa pass rush got to him. McCarthy couldn&#8217;t get the ball far down the field, but his short range throws were really deadly. His precision accuracy allowed for numerous first down conversions in long yardage situations.&nbsp;</p><p>Iowa actually played much better than the 26-0 score reflects. Their defense is phenomenal. Michigan scored 2 touchdowns, but both drives started within the Iowa 10 yard line. Both drives started from a turnover, and were therefore the fault of the Iowa offense. This brings me to my next point. Throughout this season, the Michigan defense has forced a ridiculous amount of turnovers, and are the #1 scoring defense in the entire country. The Michigan defense is the reason they scored 26 points, not the offense.&nbsp;</p><p>The Michigan special teams have come up huge. Semaj Morgan&#8217;s punt return was spectacular. His explosive ability is something we haven&#8217;t seen since Jabrill Peppers. Kicker James Turner has also been perfect. He&#8217;s been a huge asset as the season progresses, and will continue to be as we go into the playoffs.&nbsp;</p><p>The postgame was also special. Semaj Morgan&#8217;s postgame interview was great for a laugh, and I would recommend checking it out. He talked about his anticipation for the return, and how he knew he &#8220;needed to go crazy.&#8221; The trophy presentation was also great. Big 10 commissioner, Tony Petitti, was forced to give the Wolverines the trophy. Instead of accepting the award, Harbaugh asked Petitti to give Zinter the trophy. Pettiti then promptly left the stage, out of view. Mike Sainristil was given MVP for his stellar game, having forced 2 turnovers.&nbsp;</p><p>This season has been special for the Wolverines. 3 Big 10 Championships in a row is an amazing achievement. But the job is not finished. There are still 2 more games to win.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Game of the Century]]></title><description><![CDATA[Ohio State vanquished yet again, inside-the-stadium analysis]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/the-game-of-the-century</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/the-game-of-the-century</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 30 Nov 2023 22:15:58 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dbd6216c-a186-4a0d-bf5d-f4c485b2fd27_1154x830.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michigan does it again. Against all odds, the Wolverines finish 12-0 for the second straight year. In doing so, they send Ohio State packing yet again, and I had the opportunity to be there to see it.&nbsp;</p><p>This game has caused a lot of chaos in the Ohio State fanbase. Many of the Buckeye faithful are calling for the firing of Ryan Day, who by the way is 56-7 with two CFP appearances. Their disappointment with a coach who&#8217;s had such success indicates their desperation to beat Michigan, which they&#8217;ve failed to do for 3 years now.&nbsp;</p><p>The atmosphere prior to the game was exciting. 3 pre-game shows surrounded the stadium, including Big Noon Kickoff, ESPN Gameday, and Barstool Sports&#8217; new show. All three attracted large crowds. I noticed that the ratio of Michigan fans to Ohio State fans was greater than in 2021. We saw much more Maize and Blue on Saturday than we did last time at the Big House.&nbsp;</p><p>This game was bittersweet. It will be the last time &#8220;The Game&#8221; has this type of significance ever again. The winner of this game would clinch a birth in the playoff, and the loser likely would be eliminated. This game also had hugely high stakes, as Jim Harbaugh was not on the sidelines to coach the biggest game of his Michigan career. The TV analytics back it up, as this was the most watched regular season game in Fox history. The viewership peaked at about 23 million views, the highest so far this season. With the expansion of the CFP to 12 teams, the winner of &#8220;The Game&#8221; will no longer decide which team makes the playoffs. If both programs remain strong, they should both have guaranteed spots in the future, even if they lose the rivalry game.&nbsp;</p><p>But now the game itself:</p><p>About an hour before the game started, I went down to the field to watch the players warmup. To my surprise, I saw Donovan Edwards practicing throwing the ball. He was making perfect throws from the end zone to the 35 yard-line. Seeing this, I made a prediction that he would be involved in some type of trick play later on. As you can imagine, I was very happen to be proven correct. I also saw the Ohio State kicker warming up. Naturally, he was being distracted by the Michigan fans behind the goalpost. They seemed to get to him, because I saw him miss 3 kicks in a row. I wondered if these struggles would continue into the game, and again, I was thrilled to see that they did.&nbsp;</p><p>Against OSU, JJ McCarthy played the best game of his life. On several instances, he turned dead plays into big gains. He made NFL level throws throughout, but the best one was his TD pass to Roman Wilson. McCarthy placed the ball perfectly between 2 defenders for the score. Later, he released&nbsp; a statement about this magic play: "I was just doing film study all week on No. 25, and whenever he turns his head, he doesn't look at the quarterback, so once I saw him put eyes on Roman, I knew he was only covering the width of his shoulders and I just let it rip." McCarthy trusted his teammates, and they trusted him. This level of trust was very clear during the game. After bad plays, they didn&#8217;t get discouraged and stayed disciplined. On the other hand, Ohio State players seemed to get increasingly frustrated as their bad plays piled up. This is a huge difference-maker, and I think it has to do with the coaching staff. Michigan&#8217;s staff has made attempts to turn the team into a family, and it&#8217;s been paying dividends this season.&nbsp;</p><p>It&#8217;s been no secret that Michigan&#8217;s been struggling to keep up with the SEC and Ohio State with recruiting. However, I think this game proved that it doesn&#8217;t matter. Some of our best players this season not have been highly touted recruits. For example, 3 star Rod Moore made the game sealing interception, and he didn&#8217;t even get an offer from OSU, despite having grown up in Ohio. Defensive Captain Mike Sainristil was also a 3 star, and came in as a WR. In just 2 years, the Michigan staff developed him into an NFL level slot corner. And of course, Blake Corum. He came in as the #19 RB in the country. I went back to his high school scouting report, and found &#8220;Concerns about being physically maxed out,&#8221; and a prediction to be a &#8220;Day 3 draft pick&#8221; at best.&nbsp; Corum is the best example of Michigan&#8217;s development team we have. His utter domination over the past 3 years has been unbelievable. He capped off his stellar&nbsp; regular career with a huge go-ahead TD run, and it looked eerily similar to his game winning run against Penn State. This big run was the very next play after the fall of Zak Zinter, our best offensive lineman. When he went down, the 110,000 person stadium went silent. It was by far the quietest I&#8217;ve ever heard a sporting event (except for maybe a Giants game). The crowd broke out into chants for Zinter as he left in the cart. Watching this live, I was sure his loss would result in a collapse of the offense. And then, the very next play, Corum silenced these doubts.</p><p>Sherrone Moore also coached a perfect game. He was not afraid to take risks, and converted 4th downs when needed. He would attempt multiple 4th down conversions all on the same drive. We couldn&#8217;t have asked for more from an Interim Head Coach.&nbsp;</p><p>Next week, Michigan faces off against Iowa for the Big 10 Championship. While this game is important, the Wolverines have likely clinched a spot in the CFP regardless of the outcome. Now, we have the luxury of watching teams like Oregon, Washington, Alabama, and Texas, so we can scout potential CFP opponents.&nbsp;</p><p>The Selection Show for the playoff is December 3, so my next post will be both a reaction to the Big 10 Championship, and a pre-game prediction for our opponent.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Concerns from the Maryland game]]></title><description><![CDATA[Analysis of Michigan's narrow victory over the Terps]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/concerns-from-the-maryland-game</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/concerns-from-the-maryland-game</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 19 Nov 2023 23:34:46 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5ecbc659-dfc0-4bc4-9596-3ac3cd245982_1168x844.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Historically, in the week before the Ohio State matchup, Michigan has struggled. This theme definitely persisted this past weekend.&nbsp;</p><p>Last year against Illinois, Michigan barely escaped with a last minute game-winning field goal. Again, this was the week before Ohio State. Michigan played a precautionary game today, and it showed.</p><p>A large part of the bad play today was because of McCarthy. He played an uncharacteristically bad game. Because of his struggles, Sherrone Moore did not seem confident in his ability to throw the ball, resulting in another run-heavy week. However, part of McCarthy&#8217;s struggles may be because of the impending Ohio State game next week. He was not allowed to scramble, to avoid taking too many hits. It seemed as though this threw off his timing. It&#8217;s also possible that his struggles arose from a lingering injury. Against Penn State, it was clear that McCarthy was banged up.&nbsp; Both likely factored into his questionable performance.&nbsp;</p><p>Another big problem was the injuries of the rest of the squad. Star WR Roman Wilson left the game early after taking a big hit to the head. He came back to the sidelines with street clothes on. He will be a very important piece for the Ohio State game. Myles Hinton, a backup offensive lineman, also went down. His injury looked more severe. He was replacing starting OL LaDarius Henderson, who was held out of Saturday&#8217;s game in preparation for next week. Michael Barrett also left the game with an injury, but was able to return. The only real concerns for next weekend are Hinton and Wilson, but hopefully they can both make it back by then.&nbsp;</p><p>Another interesting statistic: Michigan runs the ball 54% with Harbaugh, but runs 78% without him. However, it&#8217;s hard to know if this is because of Harbaugh, or if it&#8217;s simply a reaction to the back-to-back away games.&nbsp;</p><p>Blake Corum has offered some insight into this matter. He said that the philosophy behind all the runs was that they would eventually break one away for a big gain. This worked against Penn State, but not against Maryland.&nbsp;</p><p>The Defense and Special Teams were a huge part of this victory. Mike Sainristil came up with 2 big interceptions. He seems to always be able to make plays when the team needs them. The defensive line also produced several clutch sacks that backed up the Maryland offense. Kenneth Grant had an especially big game, with a huge sack at the end of the game.&nbsp;</p><p>The Special Teams also had a huge impact. A blocked punt early on led to a safety, and then Tommy Doman placed a beautiful punt down on the one yard line. 2 interceptions and 2 safeties in one game is a pretty nice performance by these two groups.&nbsp;</p><p>Next Saturday will maybe be the biggest game of the century. This team needs to be fully healthy and ready to win it. My family has a biannual tradition of going to the game, and I look forward to reporting about the in-game experience, just as I did with Penn State.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Michigan vs Everybody]]></title><description><![CDATA[Analysis of Michigan's victory over Penn State]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/michigan-vs-everybody</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/michigan-vs-everybody</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 13 Nov 2023 00:01:50 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a4f50117-53e8-4d7a-b3aa-6899df4bd972_1106x686.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michigan&#8217;s big win over Penn State proved that they are a top team in the country. Prior to Saturday, there was uncertainty surrounding the team because they hadn&#8217;t played any good teams. Now, they have a top 10 win under their belt, and all the confidence in the world.&nbsp;</p><p>There was a lot of emotion surrounding this game. Michigan&#8217;s Head Coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended just the night before the game. Michigan came with a chip on their shoulder, and wanted to win the game for their coach. Penn State also had a lot at stake, because this was an elimination game for them. A loss meant that their chances of making the CFP were reduced to zero.</p><p>Michigan&#8217;s win was not perfect. They struggled on their first 2 drives, and it was clear that the noise of Beaver Stadium was affecting them. Beaver Stadium was the loudest stadium I&#8217;ve ever been to, and I couldn&#8217;t hear the people next to me at times. It&#8217;s a really scary environment for the opposing team. Therefore, Michigan was unable to adjust to the defense, and couldn&#8217;t call audibles. They happened to start both those drives in the Penn State student section, where the noise was worst. It was a complete whiteout on that end, and the noise was simply too much. It was impossible to function, and even from 40 yards away you could hear the vibrations. Michigan had to punt twice. Luckily, the defense held Penn State to only 3 points.</p><p>From there, the offense started to shine. Michigan drove down the field and Blake Corum punched in a touchdown to take the lead.&nbsp;</p><p>The Penn State offense continued to struggle, and Donovan Edwards broke off some big runs to widen the lead to 11. Donovan Edwards had his biggest game of the year, and looked excellent out of the backfield.&nbsp;</p><p>Right before the half, Penn State QB Drew Allar had a beautiful run to cut the lead to 5. Despite his struggles, Allar was actually hard to stop in the running game. However, the Penn State offense couldn&#8217;t do much else.&nbsp;</p><p>Coming out of halftime, Allar immediately got the ball punched out by Rayshaun Benny, and this gave Michigan more life. They turned that possession into a field goal.&nbsp;</p><p>From this point on, Penn State seemed to lose its fire on the field. They punted the ball again, and Blake Corum broke off a beautiful touchdown run on the first play of the Michigan possession. He was untouched the whole run and flew away from the defense. The game was not yet over, but the Penn State fans really believed it was. The PSU fans began to leave the stadium with about 6 minutes to go. It was clear they&#8217;d given up on their team.</p><p>Similarly, the crowd noise died off. In the first quarter, the noise was deafening. But once Michigan took the lead, the fans became quieter. We heard the consistent grumbling from the fans in our section about the lack of creativity in the Penn State play-calling.</p><p>You could sense a lot of frustration in both the team and their fanbase. In the past 2 seasons, Penn State has been undefeated against everyone, except they&#8217;re 0-4 against Michigan and Ohio State. The belief amongst Penn State fans is that HC James Franklin cannot win big games, and we saw this before our eyes.&nbsp;</p><p>Overall, the Michigan win was shaky. They did not throw the ball once in the 2nd half, and McCarthy threw only 8 passes in total. Many of those were short throws and check-downs. The coaches seemed scared to let him throw a deep ball. However, McCarthy&#8217;s legs were a huge reason for the Michigan victory. Several times, he turned a dead play into a large Michigan game. I remember one instance when he rushed for a first down on a 3rd and 10. Watching this live, I thought it was a remarkably risky call, but it worked anyway. McCarthy has a fluid acceleration that I haven&#8217;t before seen on TV. These types of plays were disheartening to the Penn State defense.&nbsp;</p><p>Michigan seemed fixated on the idea that they could beat Penn State just by running. The number 1 run defense in the country couldn&#8217;t stop Edwards and Corum, as they allowed over 200 yards and 3 touchdowns. After the game, we saw Corum walking to the media room with blood all over his face. He and Edwards gave it their all on Saturday, and it showed.</p><p>While this type of play led to a win, it cannot become a habit. Against a better team like Ohio State, it will be especially important for McCarthy to be able to light it up down the field, instead of just repeating the same run plays.&nbsp;</p><p>Michigan has proved to the world that they&#8217;re for real, but their biggest test is still to come. The game against Ohio State will likely decide if they make the playoffs or not. The stakes are high, as you could see on Corum&#8217;s face. This is the best Michigan team in decades, and the Ohio State game will determine their outcome.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Pre-Game Post: Michigan vs Penn State]]></title><description><![CDATA[How does the sign-stealing scandal impact today's game]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/pre-game-post-michigan-vs-penn-state</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/pre-game-post-michigan-vs-penn-state</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 11 Nov 2023 12:54:50 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/805c6ab7-b64a-4d12-9a48-9277f2aa1074_1272x702.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today will be Michigan&#8217;s biggest game since December of 2022. They will face the one-loss Nittany Lions in a hostile environment at Beaver Stadium. This game has huge playoff implications, because Penn State will be eliminated with a loss, and a Michigan loss will mean they&#8217;re essentially eliminated as well. However, aside from just football, this game has huge importance for the Wolverines:</p><p>In the last few weeks, Michigan has been at the center of an investigation by the Big 10 and NCAA for illegally stealing opponents signals. Yesterday, the Big 10 announced a suspension for Harbaugh. The suspension will hold him out of the final 3 regular season games, including today&#8217;s game and the Ohio State game.&nbsp;Michigan has filed a suit against the Big 10&#8217;s decision, so there is still a possibility that Harbaugh remains on the sidelines. </p><p>The team has adopted a &#8220;Michigan against the World&#8221; attitude, as seen on Juwan Howard&#8217;s Twitter page. Expect the Wolverines to come out swinging today, attempting to send a message to the rest of the country.&nbsp;</p><p>We&#8217;re driving up to Happy Valley right for the game. I will also post after the game to provide a perspective on both the in-stadium atmosphere and the actual gameplay.&nbsp;</p><p>We will see what happens by kickoff. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Calm Before the Storm]]></title><description><![CDATA[Michigan's last game before their first test against Penn State]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/the-calm-before-the-storm</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/the-calm-before-the-storm</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 05 Nov 2023 15:40:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7564e812-a6c4-4a8c-8915-74d360444642_1144x762.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michigan entered this week having not played for 2 weeks, and being under loads of scrutiny for their sign-stealing scandal.&nbsp;</p><p>It was important that they came out strong to keep up their momentum. They did that very well. Purdue started with the ball, and immediately went 3 and out to give Michigan the ball back. Michigan&#8217;s first drive was flawless. Kalel Mullings had a big first down run, and Roman Wilson had a big catch. However, the biggest play was a Donovan Edwards deep ball that got Michigan to the 2 yard line. The first drive was capped off with a Blake Corum TD.</p><p>The Michigan defense continued their dominance, forcing a second 3 and out. Michigan then drove down the field with ease, and Blake Corum punched it in again.&nbsp;</p><p>Purdue got the ball back, and immediately threw an interception to Will Johnson. At this point, it looked like pure Michigan domination. However, things started to go slightly downhill after this. Michigan was unable to capitalize off this turnover and had to settle for a field goal.&nbsp;</p><p>They only scored 3 points for the entire rest of the half, and even allowed Purdue to kick 2 field goals. Michigan was outscored 6-3 in the 2nd quarter.&nbsp;</p><p>One particularly bad moment was on a 4th down in their own side of the field, with about 2 minutes left in the half. At this point, Michigan was winning by 17 and had no reason to take risks. They decided to go for it anyway, and they were stopped.&nbsp;</p><p>Because of the scandal, I think Michigan felt they had something to prove. Therefore, they over-ambitiously went for a meaningless 4th down conversion. This behavior won&#8217;t result in any struggles against a team like Purdue. However, in the next 3 weeks, it might be better for the Michigan staff to play it safer.&nbsp;</p><p>Coming out of the half, Michigan got off to a slow start. The punted twice on their first 2 possessions. Then, Freshman WR Semaj Morgan took a jet sweep 44 yards to the house. His playmaking ability this season has been really promising. I predict that he&#8217;ll be utilized more in bigger games like Penn State and Ohio State.&nbsp;</p><p>From here, Michigan took complete control of the game, and scored twice more.&nbsp;</p><p>Overall, I would give the Wolverines an 8/10. They won by 4 scores and didn&#8217;t face any real threat. JJ McCarthy had a pretty good game. He passed for 335 yards, and made some beautiful throws. However, he had some bad incompletions that I hadn&#8217;t been seeing prior to this game. Multiple times, I felt that he threw the ball too hard or behind his target.&nbsp;</p><p>I&#8217;m also concerned that so far, McCarthy hasn&#8217;t really played a full 4 quarters of football. Because of their weak schedule, every game has been over by the 4th quarter, and McCarthy was pulled. Against teams like Penn State and Ohio State, this will not be possible. This week, the coaching staff must prepare him for a full 60 minutes of football.</p><p>Donovan Edwards had his biggest game of the season, and it was because of his receiving ability and not his running. His 37 yard reception was really his only explosive play of the year. If I was in charge, I would continue to utilize him in the receiving game. He adds an extra threat to the defense if he can play both positions.</p><p>Michigan has their biggest test of the season coming up. I will be in Happy Valley at the game, and hopefully I can provide an in-person experience.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[JJ McCarthy's Heisman Quest]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Wolverines, and their dominance across 8 straight weeks]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/jj-mccarthys-heisman-quest</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/jj-mccarthys-heisman-quest</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 22 Oct 2023 21:18:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d319ae0e-10bb-4b96-b225-3b2c794f84f7_1150x672.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Until yesterday, McCarthy was hard to find on the list of Heisman Trophy candidates. Nobody has been dominant across 8 games except for McCarthy, and maybe Michael Penix. As of yesterday, JJ McCarthy was finally given the top odds to win the Heisman.</p><p>This Saturday was Michigan&#8217;s biggest show of dominance all year. It was the largest margin of victory against Michigan State since 1947.</p><p>Almost every week, I talk about how the team played lights out. But on Saturday, they took it to a whole new level.</p><p>JJ McCarthy probably played the best game of his career. His 4 passing touchdowns were a personal record. He connected with superstar Roman Wilson for the 10th time this year. Overall, McCarthy was able to connect with 10 different receivers. The Tight Ends both had their biggest games of the year. Sophomore Colston Loveland hauled in 2 TDs along with his 79 yards. The Indiana transfer AJ Barner had himself a career game, racking up 99 yards and a TD.&nbsp;</p><p>We also saw contributions from an emerging star in Semaj Morgan. The Freshman has put together quite a nice season so far, and he continued to be a factor this weekend.&nbsp;</p><p>Corum has done what he&#8217;s been doing all year. Yet again, he ran the ball very effectively, and was unstoppable on the goal line. Donovan Edwards got a few touches, but it seems like he&#8217;s much more effective in the passing game.&nbsp;</p><p>Defensively, you can&#8217;t get much better than 0 points allowed. Michigan has played 8 games, and they still have not allowed an opponent to score more than 7 points. Mike Sainristil&#8217;s 2nd pick 6 of the year put a bow on the beautiful defensive performance.&nbsp;</p><p>In the past, I&#8217;ve talked about how this team is so good that I&#8217;m looking for very small things to criticize. Now, I&#8217;ve reached a new category where there are simply no mistakes that I can see. The team has played perfectly.&nbsp;</p><p>The only downside is that Michigan still has not faced a real threat, which is why they won&#8217;t earn a #1 ranking. They won&#8217;t really be tested until Penn State on November 11th. I will be at that game, ready to report for you all.&nbsp;</p><p>Coming into this week, there was tons of anticipation about the Penn State/Ohio State game. It looked as thought Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State were all on a collision course for the Big 10 title. However, I was very disappointed in Penn State. The 20-12 score doesn&#8217;t do justice to the low quality of their play. PSU Quarterback Drew Allar had an abysmal performance, throwing under 50% completion percentage. The offense only mustered 6 points until their garbage time TD at the end.&nbsp;</p><p>For Ohio State, they also did not play perfectly. However, it&#8217;s the second time that they&#8217;ve managed to beat an AP top 10 team. They seem to be finding ways to win, even if it&#8217;s not pretty. It seems that yet again, Michigan and Ohio State will fight for the Big 10 crown.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Week 7 Review]]></title><description><![CDATA[An early look at the College Football Playoff]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/week-7-review</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/week-7-review</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 16 Oct 2023 00:53:23 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/64c4b83e-35ea-4a65-90c0-edac385fea0c_1128x756.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yet again, Michigan has put together a dominant performance.&nbsp;</p><p>They started very shaky. In the first 7 minutes of the game, Indiana looked like the better team. McCarthy couldn&#8217;t hit his targets, the line was losing its battles to Indiana, and the run game was weak. On the opposite side of the ball, the Indiana team found holes in our defense and put together some nice drives.</p><p>All of this lasted for a very short while. From then on, Michigan started to dominate. I think this is due to our NFL-level coaching staff. In the last 3 years, we have been notorious for starting games slow, but making game-changing halftime adjustments. For example, this season, Michigan outscores opponents 93-0 in the 3rd quarter.&nbsp;</p><p>After the first quarter slump, they basically played a perfect game. McCarthy threw no incompletions after the first quarter. His connection with Colston Loveland started to heat up, as they connected for a huge touchdown.&nbsp;</p><p>McCarthy&#8217;s play this season has been seriously incredible. Aside from his stellar play in the passing game and his crazy escape ability, he is also the 3rd leading rusher on the team. His connection with Roman Wilson continued, with a 9th touchdown pass of the year. Wilson is now tied with Jehu Chesson for the most receiving touchdowns since 2015.&nbsp;</p><p>Corum&#8217;s 2 touchdowns got him to 12 on the year. He is already on pace to break his record of 18 from 2022.&nbsp;</p><p>The youngsters also got involved today, with a touchdown from Semaj Morgan and Karmello English. Tyler Morris was also able to make significant contributions. Backup RB Benjamin Hall made his first appearances, but looked very strong. Defensively, Keon Sabb was able to grab his second interception of the year, along with a pick from Rod Moore.&nbsp;</p><p>The Michigan defense has yet to allow more than 7 points, and the offense has made sure that they&#8217;ve never won by less than 20. Unfortunately, we still haven&#8217;t played a ranked opponent, so that stat doesn&#8217;t really mean anything.</p><p>The rest of the country had an eventful Saturday. Washington and Oregon had a shootout, eventually resulting in a Washington win. Both teams are exclusively reliant on their passing attack, and both seemed incapable of stopping the other. While this game was an impressive show of the PAC-12 air raid, I am still of the opinion that any Big 10 or SEC contender would beat them by a large margin. The PAC 12 defenses are simply too weak, and this was proven by USC on Saturday.&nbsp;</p><p>Notre Dame needed to save its season, as they already had 2 losses and were basically eliminated from the playoffs. USC was undefeated coming into this game. However, Notre Dame was much much much better. They turned over Caleb Williams 3 times, and that led to 3 scores. As good as he is, he wasn&#8217;t able to handle the ridiculous amount of pressure from the Notre Dame defense. They forced all kinds of mistakes and bad throws.&nbsp;</p><p>Looking to the future:&nbsp;</p><p>The PAC 12 has a new front runner in Washington, and they are the favorite to make the CFP from that conference. However, USC, Washington, and Oregon, and Utah all play each other still. This could shake things up in the PAC 12.&nbsp;</p><p>Georgia continues its dominance in the SEC. It&#8217;s looking like a rematch of Georgia-Alabama in the SEC championship. If Georgia is undefeated going into that game, they should make the playoff no matter the result.&nbsp;</p><p>The Big 10 gauntlet starts next week with Ohio State-Penn State. The 3 front runners of the Big 10 will all play each other in the coming weeks, and most likely, only one of them can make the playoff.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Michigan's case for #1]]></title><description><![CDATA[And the best defense in the country]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/michigans-case-for-1</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/michigans-case-for-1</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 09 Oct 2023 01:26:13 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d27d3ac1-83d9-4c35-a3c9-a6be5391af6a_1258x830.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Michigan&#8217;s dominant win against Minnesota gave us 2 important lessons: </p><p>This was Michigan&#8217;s best win all year, and this is Michigans best team in years. </p><p>The team got off to a hot start, and we learned that Will Johnson is back! His pick 6 on the second play was a great way to open the game. The defense overall had a beautiful game. They pressured the QB on every play, resulting in bad throws. They eventually forced 2 pick 6s in the end, the second by the young Safety Keon Sabb. The defensive line looked basically unbeatable. They got tons of sacks and completely shut down the passing game. The return of Mason Graham was also huge for them. Minnesota RB Zach Evans was the only player who could consistently make pushes against the line. </p><p>Michigan has been perfect in short yardage because of their infinite play calling ability. This is because of all the talent they have on the offense. JJ McCarthy in the running game continues to be so dangerous. His 2 rushing TDs reminded me a lot of the way Josh Allen plays. Interestingly, 3rd string RB Kalel Mullings was used over Edwards in the running game. So far, Mullings actually looks like the better pure rusher. The former linebacker has much more strength, and can push through defenses. Edwards was used in a different way on Saturday, taking many snaps as a receiver instead of a back. This seemed to be more effective. Despite the struggles of Donovan Edwards, Blake Corum is still so hard to stop. His 10 touchdowns so far tell the story of how dominant he&#8217;s been. He has a perfect combination of power and speed. However, I feel that Edwards doesn&#8217;t have the same breakaway ability. Many times this year, I&#8217;ve felt that Edwards gets taken down on plays that Corum would break.</p><p>The special teams errors have been a problem. The kickoff out of bounds was an easily avoidable mistake. It didn&#8217;t matter in this game, but against tough teams it will. </p><p>I&#8217;m being very nit-picky, but Michigan is so good that I&#8217;m looking for little details to criticize. I think Minnesota coach PJ Fleck&#8217;s quote perfectly summarizes it: &#8220;this is the best team I&#8217;ve seen in 11 years of being a head coach. I&#8217;ve never seen a team that deep.&#8221; </p><p>Now, a brief commentary about the evil Ohio State Buckeyes:</p><p>The 6-0 team played like they were 3-3. Despite beating Maryland by 20, they certainly didn&#8217;t play that much better. The Ohio State offense struggled against a mediocre Maryland defense. It wasn&#8217;t until the second half that their passing game opened up. The running game looked weak as well. I feel confident because Michigan, so far, has a much better team.</p><p>As of now, there is no clear dominant team in the country. I think Michigan has the strongest roster. If they can get past Penn State and Ohio State, they have a serious shot at the title.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Does Michigan deserve the #1 spot??]]></title><description><![CDATA[Analysis of Michigan's game against Nebraska, and Georgia's near collapse]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/does-michigan-deserve-the-1-spot</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/does-michigan-deserve-the-1-spot</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 01 Oct 2023 00:33:03 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5a33b1c9-e17d-4df2-ad3c-c2c3b88ce20c_1260x752.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today, Michigan played their best game of the season. They looked simply unbeatable.&nbsp;</p><p>Offensively, the team is unstoppable. It all starts with the offensive line. Every run play, they allow for huge gaping holes for Corum and Edwards to move through. In the passing game, they give McCarthy all the time in the world for him to make the right read. Speaking of which, JJ Mccarthy played absolutely lights out. He hit every throw with perfect accuracy. He looks to be the centerpiece of maybe the best Michigan team we&#8217;ve had in decades. His connection with Roman Wilson continues to shine. They connected for a highlight reel touchdown today, where Wilson caught the 40 yard ball in the back of the endzone over the head of the Nebraska defender. Later on, McCarthy spun out of pressure and found Wilson again for another highlight play. This was their 8th touchdown connection in just 5 games. Both McCarthy and Wilson are playing at an NFL caliber level.&nbsp;</p><p>JJ has also continued to succeed in his lethal running plays. He ran for his first rushing touchdown of the season, showcasing his speed and athleticism. His ability to run is so dangerous for opposing defenses. On play actions, the opposing edge rushers have to freeze in case McCarthy decides to keep it. This allows for more space for Corum and Edwards to work with. Combined with the dominant O-line, these play actions can consistently lead to chunk plays.&nbsp;</p><p>Michigan&#8217;s red zone offense has also been phenomenal, and it&#8217;s all because of Blake Corum. He has been nearly undefeated in short yardage situations, and so Michigan has used the exact same play on short 3rd/4th downs and goal-line scenarios. They are daring other teams to try and stop the magical play: Blake Corum up the middle. His 9 touchdowns on the year are pretty good evidence of the success they&#8217;ve had.&nbsp;</p><p>For the first time today, Michigan showcased the depth they have at the running back spot. Aside from Corum, Donovan Edwards had a slightly increased role. Kalel Mullings also had a big impact on the game, and even scored a nice touchdown for his first of the year. Leon Franklin and Tavierre Dunlap were also able to take snaps. We were told Nebraska had the #1 running defense in the Big 10. With all due respect, allowing 249 total rushing yards doesn&#8217;t seem all that great.&nbsp;</p><p>The defense had a pretty great game as well, and an excellent season overall. We are 5 games in, and the Michigan defense has still not allowed a team to score over 7 points in a game. The defensive line continues to dominate, showing their physical strength and power. They put the quarterback into pressure, and force bad throws and bad decisions. The defense looks ready for a tougher test in the future. The only issue I see is the secondary. They have several young players in the secondary because a majority of their Cornerback/Safety talent in recent years has graduated. They look especially weak in mid-range passes. However, they&#8217;ve been excellent at defending the deep ball.&nbsp;</p><p>The problem with such a decisive win is that I don&#8217;t have very much to say, so I&#8217;ll spend a little time talking about Georgia.</p><p>We can beat Georgia. They look weaker than they used to. Watching the game was incredibly infuriating, because they were so beatable, and yet Auburn wasn&#8217;t good enough to beat them. Their NFL caliber defense that we&#8217;ve grown used to is gone, for the most part. Their elite talent has all gone to the league. Of course, they&#8217;ve been replaced by more 5 star talent, but it doesn&#8217;t look the same. If Auburn can get one possession away from winning, you know it&#8217;s not the same defense. The offense also didn&#8217;t look great. Except for Brock Bowers, who looked simply unstoppable. I think I remember him having made 3 one-handed catches in a row. Bowers might be the best player in the country right now.&nbsp;</p><p>Things are looking up for the team, and I look forward to next week against Minnesota. We haven&#8217;t been tested yet. Maybe they can provide a real challenge.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Michigan's Big 10 opener against Rutgers]]></title><description><![CDATA[The return of Jim Harbaugh]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/michigans-big-10-opener-against-rutgers</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/michigans-big-10-opener-against-rutgers</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 23 Sep 2023 19:05:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b840ceaa-6769-4f41-b3aa-d0873c6d7a4d_1254x840.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rutgers looked like a legit team. But Michigan was much better.&nbsp;</p><p>They did get off to a poor start. The defense gave up a huge play on the first drive, allowing Rutgers to go ahead 7-0. This was the first and only time all season that Michigan would trail in a game. Michigan quickly responded with a Blake Corum touchdown.&nbsp;</p><p>McCarthy started off slow. He made a few bad throws, and seemed rattled from last week&#8217;s bad game. However, the return of Jim Harbaugh made an impact. The play-calling allowed JJ to get back in his groove. Starting with a few screen passes, and then a trick play, McCarthy was handed several easy throws in a row.&nbsp;</p><p>They also did a great job getting Donovan Edwards involved. If you&#8217;ve read my previous posts, you&#8217;ll know that one of my biggest critiques was his lack of involvement. They changed that today, with several designed plays for Edwards to generate space out of the backfield. He&#8217;s proven to be a very effective pass-catching back.&nbsp;</p><p>Blake Corum had a huge day. In my opinion, he&#8217;s the most important player on the field, even when he doesn&#8217;t gain huge yardage. Corum hasn&#8217;t broken off big runs this season. However, he&#8217;s consistently generated big plays into the secondary on runs that should only go 2-3 yards. Not to mention, he literally hasn&#8217;t been stopped on the goal line all year. 8 touchdowns in 4 games is quite the statistic. This causes defenses to sell out to stop him. It requires patience, but this is excellent for Michigan&#8217;s offense. Why? Because this allows for more ways for Michigan to beat you.</p><ol><li><p>The defense has to stop Corum in the run game. We know from the past 2 years that this requires a lot of manpower.</p></li><li><p>The defense has to plan for JJ McCarthy designed runs. They utilized this a lot today, which ties back to the excellent play-calling. With everyone selling out to stop Corum, it allowed tons of space for McCarthy to run.&nbsp;</p></li><li><p>The defense also has to plan for Edwards to catch passes out of the backfield. He&#8217;s been slow so far this season. However, in 2022 he had several huge plays that demoralized defenses.&nbsp;</p></li><li><p>The defense has to stop Michigan in the air. Roman Wilson has had a huge start to the year, scoring 6 touchdowns so far. He&#8217;s been faster than any cornerback that he&#8217;s faced. Cornelius Johnson and Colston Loveland are two more weapons that JJ has liked to target. And don&#8217;t forget about the freshman Semaj Morgan, who scored his first touchdown today.&nbsp;</p></li></ol><p>This is the advantage of having such a talented roster&#8230; it&#8217;s just so hard to stop everyone on it.&nbsp;</p><p>Moving to the defense now. The defensive line had yet another outstanding game. Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai caused problems early on, but they quickly made adjustments. In the end, they held him to only 27 yards, effectively taking him out of the game. They slowly broke down the Rutgers offensive line, causing Rutgers QB Gavin Wimsatt to settle for bad throws. Eventually, this led to a Mike Sainristil interception that he took for 6. They did all this without Mason Graham, one of the best defensive players on the team.&nbsp;</p><p>Unfortunately, the secondary looked a little weak today. I&#8217;m not too concerned, because they are still pretty banged up. Star player Will Johnson has been dealing with injuries, as well as Rod Moore who played for the first time this season. They looked rusty, and this led to several chunk plays that really shouldn&#8217;t happen. This will be adjusted down the line. The team will grow healthier. It&#8217;s just a matter of time.</p><p>The special teams issues continued today. A kick return was dropped, resulting in a start from the 10 yard-line. The kicker James Turner also missed a kick. Michigan has always had strong special teams, but so far, it&#8217;s the opposite. That&#8217;s my biggest concern heading into the rest of the season.&nbsp;</p><p>Overall, the team looks strong. Michigan continues to play as a second-half team, a trend that started in 2022. The defense should feast against a struggling Nebraska team next week.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Reviewing Michigan's Week 3 game against Bowling Green]]></title><description><![CDATA[Blake Corum is back to his Heisman form]]></description><link>https://www.samcain.net/p/reviewing-michigans-week-3-game-against</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.samcain.net/p/reviewing-michigans-week-3-game-against</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Samson Cain]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sun, 17 Sep 2023 17:06:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/acb3db6f-de36-4f26-8ded-b55631f40a82_896x740.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Did Michigan play a sloppy game? Yes.</p><p>Did Michigan also dominate the game? Yes.</p><p>In the past 2 weeks, Michigan had thrown the ball surprisingly well, and uncharacteristically had a weak running game. This week, they reverted back to their DNA.&nbsp;</p><p>Blake Corum and the offensive line dominated Bowling Green from the get-go. He was pretty much unstoppable, and broke off a 50 yard run on the first offensive play. This game was excellent for regaining confidence in the trenches. Corum looks like he&#8217;s back to his 2022 form.</p><p>I&#8217;m much more concerned about Donovan Edwards. After Corum got injured last year, Edwards played back to back to back stellar games. Coming into this season, Edwards and Corum were universally known as the 2 best running backs in the country. Corum has lived up to the hype so far. Edwards has not. From what I&#8217;m seeing, he&#8217;s much slower to make his first cut, and he&#8217;s struggling to push the line forward. While Corum has consistently gotten 8-12 yard chunk plays, it&#8217;s far too often that Edwards gets stuck with a 1 or 2 yard gain. This is a problem for 2 reasons&#8230;</p><ol><li><p>If both Edwards and Corum played well, defenses would have to gameplan for both. This would allow JJ McCarthy to have more space in the passing game. If Edwards struggles, Corum becomes the only real threat in the running game, giving defenses a much easier task.</p></li><li><p>Corum&#8217;s knee may still be at risk. He&#8217;s still less than a year removed from his surgery. Edwards is going to be used to lessen his workload. It would be great for him to be an additional threat instead of a liability.</p></li></ol><p>Is this an overreaction? Maybe. It&#8217;s only been 3 weeks and Michigan hasn&#8217;t played a real defense yet.&nbsp;</p><p>Last year, JJ McCarthy struggled at times with his decision making and accuracy. In the first 2 games, it seemed as though he corrected this. That all went away on Saturday. He threw 3 interceptions, which definitely shouldn&#8217;t happen against Bowling Green. None of the 3 INTs were good plays by the defender, and instead were just bad throws or bad decisions, or both.&nbsp;</p><p>That being said, it&#8217;s good that he struggles in a game that doesn&#8217;t matter. It probably wouldn&#8217;t end well if he played this badly against Penn State or Ohio State. I think this is also an opportunity to bring JJ back down to earth. Hopefully, he learns that playing carelessly leads to turnovers. I&#8217;m not too concerned about him.&nbsp;</p><p>The WRs once again played phenomenally well. Pre-season, I was very concerned about them. Now, all my concerns are gone. JJ and Roman Wilson connected for their 6th TD of the year in just 3 games. He looks like the faster player on the field any time he touches the ball. Cornelius Johnson has also been very consistent, catching yet another touchdown, despite a bad throw from McCarthy. Young WR Tyler Morris showed promise. He was teammates with McCarthy in high school, and you can see the connection between them. Morris got wide open several times, but McCarthy had trouble finding him downfield. If they can connect better, I expect serious production. Colston Loveland also played really well, as usual with Michigan Tight Ends.</p><p>The defense played really really well. The tackling has been especially good. I don&#8217;t think I can remember one missed tackle from the whole game. They looked elite at all 3 levels, and this is without star players Will Johnson and Rod Moore. The defensive line generates pressure on nearly every play. Kris Jenkins is a monster on the interior, and he even got himself an INT! Junior Colson, Ernest Haussmann, and Michael Barrett are all elite Linebackers and secure the middle of the field really well. Mike Sainristil continues to impress me. His tackling ability is maybe the best on the team, and his speed is also great. The only problem I saw was in the secondary, but again, they are missing 2 key players. The young Safety Keon Sabb has really stepped up, and looks to be playing a key role in the defense.</p><p>My kicking concerns have been answered for now. Turner hit a very nice field goal without any trouble. The special teams had some issues with fumbles, which is not good. My only real criticism is the return team. I feel that they&#8217;ve been getting no real movement from Jake Thaw, the current return man. I&#8217;d like to see that fixed, because a lethal return man can really help out in times of need.</p><p>If we look to the rest of the country, there is reason for optimism. Georgia looked really weak in the first half against South Carolina. Florida State nearly lost to Boston College, and Texas struggled against Wyoming. Unfortunately, Ohio State put on a show against Western Kentucky. They were the only top ranked team who played a flawless game. Washington also looked very good against Michigan State. I think Washington may sneak their way into the playoff picture at some point.&nbsp;</p><p>Back to Michigan now. Overall, the game was pretty sloppy but we won by 25. I can&#8217;t really complain. Rutgers should be an easy one next week, so let&#8217;s hope the team can continue to dominate.&nbsp;</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.samcain.net/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading The Inflection Point of Michigan Football! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>